Economic Modelling in the OECD Countries by Lawrence R. Klein (auth.), Homa Motamen (eds.)

By Lawrence R. Klein (auth.), Homa Motamen (eds.)

among the 159 member nations of the United international locations association that are taken care of as nation devices, whereas smaller nations are grouped jointly in areas. The variety of equations used is nearly thirteen seven-hundred, whereas the variety of software program steps for computation is nearly a hundred thousand. Computation, together with tabulation, can however be played very speedily, and in basic terms approximately 20 mins is needed to make forecasts from the current as much as the yr 2000. The FUGI version is at the present getting used via the Projections and views reviews department, division of overseas monetary and Social Affairs of the United countries, for simulations of United international locations medium- and long term overseas improvement innovations, whereas the undertaking hyperlink version is getting used for momentary forecasts (Onishi, 1985). influenced by means of our most recent joint study with the United countries collage on a 'global early caution process for displaced persions', now we have felt the necessity for our FUGI version to move past its current capacities targeted on an 'economic' version (in the relatively conventional, constrained feel of the time period) and to turn into a version which can sooner or later examine 'global problematiques' or 'global complexes of indicators' and complex questions together with a number of kinds of environmental difficulties and the types of displaced people matters to which we're now directing our cognizance. we're hence increasing the scope of our fifth-generation FUGI version, almost immediately below improvement, to accommodate such issues.

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3(t - 2). R 2 = Squared correlation coefficient, SEE = Standard error of estimation, DW = Durbin-Watson statistic. 2 Estimated equations for private employment growth, sample 1960-1982 ~ '" ~. 2(t-2). R2= t - t) Annual figures. 5 Estimated equations for real export growth, sample 1960-1982 Annual figures. Numbers in parentheses are t-values, lags are symbolized by t - x, where x = 1 is one year lag. 93. R2 = Squared correlation coefficient, etc. 4 Estimated equations for the inflation rate of domestic expenditure, sample 1960-1982 .......

LOOt (-) + LOOt (-) + LOOt (-) + LOOt Forward shifting of social security contributions (employers) Annual figures. Numbers in parentheses are t-values, lags are symbolized by t - x, where x "Dummy 1975. pz= Nominal wages Germany bdU. = ............. 22) Constant = 1 is one year lag. 81) Stock formation Annual figures.

6 percentage point in 1987. 8 billion in 1986 and the Japan-US trade imbalance will rather increase in dollar terms. 6 percentage points in 1986 in comparison with what it would otherwise have been if all other factors were assumed to be unchanged. This will probably have the effect of applying a brake to the expansion of imports, and may be called the paradox of the stronger yen. 2 percentage points during 1986. 4 percentage point. 2 percentage point in 1987 in comparison with what it would be if oil prices had remained $5 per barrel higher.

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